Eni S.p.A. AI infrastructure: the data-centre business nobody is valuing

Abstract

Eni is rated a strong buy on a five-year view, and the case rests on a business that appears in nobody’s numbers, including the company’s own. The European Commission cleared the data-centre joint venture with Khazna under the simplified procedure on 10 August 2026, giving a jointly controlled vehicle and an agreed scope for a 500 MW campus at Ferrera Erbognone. None of the twenty-two brokers publishing a target carries that campus as a discrete sum-of-the-parts line, none of the twelve analysts on the second-quarter call asked about it, and Eni’s own 2026 to 2030 plan does not mention it. Consensus has therefore not priced the business differently. It has not priced it at all. This note values the group as a sum-of-the-parts at $75 mid-cycle Brent, below the $92.25 spot on the price date, and sizes the AI-infrastructure business from third-party build costs and development yields across the three streams Eni can capture: colocation equity, a blue-power spread and a carbon storage tariff. Weighted across five scenarios, the 2031 value is consequently €44.28 a share against €23.60 on 24 August 2026, an 87.6% price return and 114.7% once €6.38 of cumulative dividends is included. While the five-year payoff is notable, ultimately the nearer-term figure is deliberately modest: fair value today is €26.74, only 13.3% above spot, because a project carrying no final investment decision, no disclosed capital commitment and no anchor tenant is credited at a 45% execution probability. The AI line supplies 5.9% of the weighted 2031 value, and the energy business does the rest.